Labor retained Stafford after voters across Kedron and Brisbane’s inner north delivered a strong swing towards the Liberal National Party in one of the closest contests seen in the electorate in recent years.
The Stafford by-election, held on 16 May, saw Labor candidate Luke Richmond edge ahead of LNP challenger Fiona Hammond after preference flows pushed him past the line following a tense night of counting.
While Labor retained the seat once held by late MP Jimmy Sullivan, the result reflected shifting voter sentiment in suburbs including Kedron, Stafford Heights and Gordon Park.
The LNP secured more than 40 per cent of the primary vote, recording a swing towards the governing party in an electorate that has traditionally leaned Labor. The final result remained uncertain late into election night as postal votes and preferences continued to be counted.
Kedron Booths Show Stronger Support for the LNP
Results across Kedron polling booths showed stronger support for the LNP than in previous elections. Voters raised concerns about housing affordability, traffic congestion, rising household costs and pressure on local infrastructure as both major parties fought to win over undecided residents.
Labor’s primary vote dropped significantly compared with the last state election, while the LNP improved its position in several booths across the electorate. An election analyst noted the swing against Labor was significant compared with previous results in Brisbane’s inner north.
The Greens also played a major role in the outcome. Unlike previous elections, the party issued an open how-to-vote position rather than directing preferences to Labor. Despite that, a large share of Greens preferences still flowed back to Richmond during the final count.
Steven Miles Under Pressure After Close Stafford Result
The result has intensified scrutiny on Queensland Opposition Leader Steven Miles, who campaigned heavily throughout Kedron and surrounding suburbs during the short by-election campaign.
Speaking after the count, Mr Miles said Labor had expected a difficult contest given the large number of candidates and Ms Hammond’s profile as a former Brisbane city councillor. He maintained that holding the seat showed the party was rebuilding after its defeat at the 2024 state election.
However, senior figures within the LNP quickly framed the outcome as a political setback for Labor. Premier David Crisafulli described the swing towards the government as unexpected, while Deputy Premier Jarrod Bleijie argued the result showed dissatisfaction with Miles’ leadership.
Housing and Cost Pressures Shape Local Debate
Campaign discussions frequently focused on local issues including housing and transport. Residents across Kedron and Stafford pointed to rising rents, overcrowded roads and concerns about future development in established neighbourhoods.
Ms Hammond centred much of her campaign on long-term planning and cost-of-living pressure, while Mr Richmond focused on health services, schools and maintaining investment in local facilities.
At campaign events and polling booths, voter concerns frequently centred on local economic pressures rather than broader party messaging. Several reports linked the swing to concerns about mortgage repayments and housing affordability.
The by-election was triggered after Mr Sullivan’s passing in April. Mr Sullivan, who represented Stafford since 2015, was known for his local campaigning work across the electorate. His passing influenced the tone of the campaign across the electorate.
Preferences Decide the Final Outcome
As counting continued into Sunday, Labor’s lead remained dependent on preference distributions rather than first-choice votes alone. Postal voting heavily favoured the LNP, while Greens and minor-party preferences helped Mr Richmond move ahead in the final tally.
The outcome means Labor keeps the Stafford seat, while the swing recorded in Kedron and nearby suburbs is expected to draw attention from both major parties ahead of the 2028 Queensland election.
Published 19-May-2026
